The manner and pace of the collapse of President Marc Ravolomanana was as stunning as it was revealing. In 2006, he had convincingly won a fresh second term and yet in two years his army deserted him.Infact in the 2006 elections, he actually carried 75.39% of the vote in Antananarivo, the same capital used by his rival to topple him in March 2009. Such a landslide victory could possibly have given him an unsafe sense of security and popularity that he could have felt ‘people power’ was enough even without ‘military power’. He had an uneasy relationship with the military. This was a political mistake. Noteworthy is the fact that Ravolomana was relatively new on the political stage with less loyal allies as opposed to his predecessor Didier Ratsiraka who had ruled since the 1970s.Politcal parties across Africa are stronger politically if they have within them a significant component of independence politicians with influence in the security arms of the state. More often the new popular parties sweep power dramatically and they tend to fall equally dramatically like Ravalomanana because they lack a loyal membership. They are usually a platform for protest voters not believers of the ideology of that new party.
After years of misrule, voters tend to vote against the incumbent and not necessarily for the challenger and there is support for anyone who dares challenge that ‘strongman’. This is not to dispute the remarkable ideas and work of new political parties though. When the new face wins the election, eventually supporters start to scrutinize their policies in a way, which may imply that they never believed in those policies in the first place. Consequently, working with ‘insiders’ or other independence politicians make greater political sense although such an arrangement makes the new party less transformative.
The overthrow was bizarre, ill conceived and it definitely sets the continent backwards. That President Ravolomanana had not lived up to his promises did not warrant such a flagrant disregarding of the constitution. The IMF and World Bank had briefly suspended direct budgetary support due to the tendency by the Presidency to use his office to extend his business interests. However, in general, terms, Madagascar has seen relative tranquility and growth during his rule and there wasn’t anything so urgent that waiting for the proposed referendum would have been fatal for Madagascar as implied by the hysterical and hurried approach by Rajoeliena’s supporters. The AU has rightly suspended the Andry Rajoelina government. However, one wonders if this suspension will bother Rajoelina because Ravolomanana himself had his government suspended in 2002 yet at that time, he was receiving up to $2 billion in pledges by IMF and World bank together with recognition by several Western countries.AU suspension is increasingly becoming a nonevent. Infact, one could argue that AU and SADC lack the resources and means to whip errant African leaders into line. Indeed, during the AU Summit held on 9 July 2002,President Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal made a stunning remark: "Tell me who, among you all present in this hall, was elected through the same regular and democratic tactics that you are requiring from the Malagasy with this much obstinacy? How many of you did not rig the polls to indefinitely cling onto power at the great displeasure and despair of the African populations? How many of you did not come to power through violence and coups?" Could it be possible that coup leaders and dictators are freely breaking the law knowing fully well that they won’t get any meaningful rebuke from fellow leaders? More intriguing is how the other Western countries like Switzerland and the US had the nerve to recognize Madagascar in 2002 when AU still thought the regime was illegitimate. The audacious move by the youthful Rajoeliena should not come as a surprise to those who have followed Madagascar politics.
left, Andry Rajoelina and right, Marc Ravalomanana
However, the Malagasy imbroglio has several other lessons for all progressives in the world;
The military menace in Africa; The army chief Andre Andriarijaona actually told the President to step down! He allowed soldiers to go on a rampage and storm the Presidential palace, loot it like thieves. Interestingly, in the next few weeks, the Madagasy taxpayer will pay for the repair of that vandalism. When the army sides with an underage man literally plucked from the air by the elite, then you know there is a serious problem. There was no genocide or anything unusually bad in Madagascar that could not wait for the election in 2011 or the referendum suggested by the deposed leader. Sadly, history shows that between 1952 and 1989, Africa witnessed over a 150 successful coups, attempted coups, and counter-coups. Nigeria was literally ruled by army generals in the 1960s. Recently, all top generals boycotted the swearing in ceremony of Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai of Zimbabwe. Infact, the late Commander of the Defense Forces,General Vitalis Zvinavashe had vowed in 2002 that as generals they would not salute anyone who had not participated in the liberation struggle. Nature took its course and it was Tsvangirai as Prime Minister who buried that stubborn general early in March. May be that’s a sign these cruel generals are human after all. They have weaknesses and vulnerabilities.Guinea Bissau soldiers killed their own President ‘Nino’ Viera in an alleged response to the killing of their own general. A lot of military leaders are implicated in massive looting of natural resources especially in DRC.The time has come for these to face the full wrath of the law.T heir assets and money stashed abroad should be frozen and their crimes have to be documented. They should come before the courts of law to explain their disdainful behavior. I hope this happens to the new Madagascar chief in the near future
The Malagasy crisis sets a bad example for all youths in Africa as well.Andry Rajoliena at 34 deliberately chose not to abide by the constitution, which clearly stipulates 40 years as the minimum age of being President. At a time when the call for renewal and the need for younger people to take office in Africa, we have a young person who is simply doing what the rest of the young people in Africa should never emulate. The last few decades saw many aged current and former presidents showing a disregard for the rule of law.Aren't the young people supposed to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors?. Or it will get worse? In addition, historically, powerful politicians have manipulated the energy and enthusiasm of young people to settle scores with political enemies. With Rajoelina, he is the embodiment of the exploitation of young people by old and powerful politicians. It is not surprising that the former President Didier Ratsiraka, France and other interests have been blamed as being the real force behind Rajoelina. He is being used as politicians have abused many young people. This has to stop. As young people, we know what we want and we will not allow any politician or country to try and use us as a pawn in their chess game. On another hand, the fact that those politicians had to select an underage political rookie to fight Ravolomanana in a way reflects the growing acceptance of the ability of young people to govern. No one wants to work with an incapable person. What is left is for a young person is to be formidable players in the development thinking of their countries. Gone are the days when young people would just be in the fringes singing songs during political conferences whilst the much older people were locked up in more serious deliberations in politics. This points to an urgent need for leadership capacity development for these emerging leaders.Rajoelina is a business man, who could have been a role model had he chosen to do things the right way.However,what is undeniable is that he is charismatic, an orator who of course vacillates wildly between demagoguery and sensationalism. Leadership development programmes should become a part of the curricula in schools and colleges right across the continent. Young people are rising fast but without preparation, they are prone to abuse by more established and cunning politicians. The much-needed regeneration of African politics could be possible by equipping a new and emerging critical mass of young and aspiring African leaders.
International powers’ meddling in the internal affairs of sovereign nations; France is less than innocent in the Madagascar crisis. Not surprising, many authors believe France was increasingly becoming uncomfortable with Ravolomanana’s intention to work with other countries other than itself. This obviously would have meant less French influence in the Indian Ocean Island. Interestingly, Rajoelina was being protected by France during the time he had disappeared and the appointment of the French Ambassador was one of Rajoelina’s first decisions when he assumed office. Clearly, interests trump causes in international relations. Historically, many interventions have been inspired more by ulterior motives than mere humanitarian concern. Unfortunately, intervention remains an occasional necessary evil particularly in dealing with brutal dictatorships in the mould of Pinochet, Mobuto etc. It could explain why many powers have ignored other countries in need. The Rwandan genocide occurred while attention was elsewhere. This is wrong. In the 1980s, when the Mugabe unleashed the North Korean trained bloodthirsty fifth brigade, 20000 Ndebeles were killed while some British and American universities were strangely giving him honorary degrees and the Queen of England actually knighted him! When his government led the killing of less than 200 white farmers during the controversial land reform programme, all hell broke loose.Infact, the same universities wanted to revoke their ‘honorary degrees. Mugabe was as wrong then as he is wrong now but the question remains, is the international outcry genuine? Should the poor masses across Africa view the France, UK etc as honest brokers? Regrettably not always. The manner and frequency of intervention in affairs of sovereign nations remains a hot potato and it is my hope that the new Obama administration will use its undisputed influence and power to be fair yet firm during times of crisis.
